Technological Change Dynamic And
Learning Curve Theory: Application To
The Global Energy System
Author(s)
S. Kahouli-Brahmi
Abstract
This paper has two goals. First, to explain the sources of an energy system
lock-in. Second, to analyse the factors for creating conditions for technological
path-breaking. We present a comparative analysis of the respective contributions
of the learning-by-doing, the learning-by-researching and returns to scale effects
in explaining the technological change dynamic. Our analysis is articulated
within the increasing returns to adoption hypothesis of Arthur (Competing
technologies, increasing returns, and lock-in by historical events. The economic
journal 99, pp. 116-131, 1989) and is based on the learning curve theory. Global
time series data of nine energy technologies, conventional and renewable, were
collected. Causality analysis and econometric estimation of learning rates and
scale effects were performed. The results show that learning effects have been an
important source of cost decrease and thus of learning system performance
improvements. They also show that the magnitude of the learning effects as well
as of the scale effects depend on the technological change stage of energy
technologies. Based on major results, some theoretical institutional and policy
issues inherent to the energy market barriers and to the conditions for creating
technological path-breaking are also assessed and discussed.
Keywords: technological change, energy diffusion, two factor learning curve,
returns to scale effect, energy lock-in, increasing returns to adoption.
1 Introduction
Environmental policy debates increasingly focus on issues related to energy
system dynamics. For a long time, production and consumption processes have
been based on fossil fuel resources, mainly oil and coal energy technologies,
Keywords
technological change, energy diffusion, two factor learning curve,
returns to scale effect, energy lock-in, increasing returns to adoption.
Related Book
Other papers in this volume
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