Characterizing And Modelling The Spatial
Patterns Of Wildfire Ignitions In Portugal:
Fire Initiation And Resulting Burned Area
Author(s)
F. X. Catry, F. C. Rego, F. Moreira & F. Bacao
Abstract
According to the statistics Portugal has the highest density of wildfire ignitions
among southern European countries. The ability to predict ignition occurrence
constitutes an important tool for managers, helping to improve the effectiveness
of fire prevention, detection and fire fighting resources allocation. In this study
we used a database with information about 127 490 fire ignitions that occurred in
Portugal during a five year period. We performed frequency analysis to
characterize the occurrence of wildfire ignitions in relation to both human and
environmental variables and compared the spatial patterns of ignitions which
originated fires larger or smaller than 500 ha. We also used logistic regression
models to predict the relative probability of ignition occurrence, as a function of
the resulting fire size. Results show that fire ignitions are strongly related to
human presence and activity, and that the spatial patterns of ignitions are
different for larger or smaller wildfires. Larger wildfires started in areas with
lower population density, more distant from the main roads and at higher
elevations, when compared to smaller fires, and also started more frequently in
shrublands and forested areas. The results obtained can be useful in decision
making for fire danger management.
Keywords: fire ignition, spatial patterns, logistic regression, wildfires, GIS,
Portugal.
Keywords
fire ignition, spatial patterns, logistic regression, wildfires, GIS,
Portugal.
Related Book
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