Evaluating Spatially-explicit Burn Probabilities
For Strategic Fire Management Planning
Author(s)
C. Miller, M.-A. Parisien, A. A. Ager & M. A. Finney
Abstract
Spatially explicit information on the probability of burning is necessary for
virtually all strategic fire and fuels management planning activities, including
conducting wildland fire risk assessments, optimizing fuel treatments, and
prevention planning. Predictive models providing a reliable estimate of the
annual likelihood of fire at each point on the landscape have enormous potential
to support strategic fire and fuels management planning decisions, especially
when combined with information on the values at risk and the expected fire
impacts. To this end, a spatially-explicit modelling technique, termed ‘burn
probability’ (BP) modelling, has been developed to simulate fires as a function
of the physical factors that drive their spread – fuels, weather, and topography –
using the most sophisticated landscape-scale fire spread algorithms available.
Despite several applications of the BP technique, much remains to be learned
about their predictive ability. To achieve this goal, we are conducting
experiments to not only unearth new discoveries about the complexities of fireenvironment
relationships, but also to test and compare the relevance and
accuracy of modelling approaches.
Keywords: burn probability, simulation modelling, strategic planning, wildland
fire risk, fuel treatments.
Keywords
burn probability, simulation modelling, strategic planning, wildlandfire risk, fuel treatments.
Related Book
Other papers in this volume
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