A New Plotting Position Concept To Evaluate
Peak Flood Discharges Based On Short Samples
Author(s)
M. M. Portela1 & J. M. Delgado2
Abstract
A model to improve the estimates of the peak flood discharges given by the
statistical analysis applied to small samples of annual maximum instantaneous
discharges, Qami, is presented. The model combines a new probability plotting
position technique – by means of a sorting operator, SO – with the Gumbel law
with parameters evaluated by the least square method. It should be stressed that
other statistical laws compatible with the previous parameter estimation method
should be possible. For a given watershed, the SO modifies the rank of each
element of the sample of Qami by taking into account the magnitude of the
floods in a nearby watershed where more records are available. The two
watersheds must belong to the same homogenous hydrologic region and must be
geographically close in order to be valid to consider that the extreme flood
events in both watersheds are likely due to the same extreme rainfall events. The
results achieved showed that the model allows for better estimates, especially
when applied to short samples, as those more often provided by the Portuguese
network of stream gages.
Keywords: flood analysis, probability plotting position, sorting operator, least
square method, Gumbel law.
Keywords
flood analysis, probability plotting position, sorting operator, least
square method, Gumbel law
Related Book
Other papers in this volume
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