Continuous Simulation Or Event-based
Modelling To Estimate Flood Probabilities?
Author(s)
O. Hoes & F. Nelen
Abstract
Risk analysis will become more important in formulating cost-effective solutions
to flood problems. For this purpose, we need reliable estimates of flood
frequencies in terms of inundation depths, as well as the possible damage that
may result from the flooding. This article deals with the first aspect.
Hydrologists are using many different modelling techniques for estimating
the flood frequency. These methods can be divided into two categories: event
based design and continuous simulation approaches. In the first approach, the
probability of extreme water levels is derived directly by simulating a large
number of storm events, for which the probability has been determined in
advance. Each event is characterized by a combination of stochastic variables
that may contribute to flooding, such as rainfall volume, antecedent conditions,
rainfall pattern, event duration, etc. An important feature of this approach is that
it is assumed that the probability of the simulated storm event is equal to the
probability of the calculated maximum water level. In the second approach, the
water level probabilities are derived with standard flood frequency analyses of a
(measured or calculated) time series of water levels.
In this paper, both approaches are discussed. Their results are compared for
two catchments in the Netherlands. It is shown that the probability of floods is
different when using continuous simulations and a stochastic event-based
approach. It is concluded that for this type of problem a continuous simulation is
to be preferred.
Keywords: probability of floods, continuous simulation, stochastic events.
1 Introduction
Many studies have been carried out to estimate the consequences of expected
climate change on the behaviour of water systems (IPCC [1], Parker [2], Monirul
Keywords
probability of floods, continuous simulation, stochastic events.
Related Book
Other papers in this volume
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