Wildfire Hazard Evaluation Through A
Space-time Point Process Conditional
Intensity Model
Author(s)
J. Mateu, F. Saura, P. Gregori & P. Juan
Abstract
Fire departments all over the world often use numerical indices to aid in wild-fire
management and hazard assessment. These indices are designed to summarize
local meteorological and fuel information and provide an estimate of the current
risk of fire.
In this paper we evaluate the effectiveness of the Burning Index (BI) (a collec-tion
of numerical indices designed to be used for fire planning and management)
for predicting wildfire occurrences in the Valencian Community (Spain) using
space-time point process models. The models are based on a particular decom-position
of the conditional intensity, with separate terms to describe spatial and
seasonal variability as well as contributions from the BI.
Keywords: burning index, conditional intensity function, spatio-temporal point
processes, wildfires.
1 Introduction
A spatio-temporal point process is a random collection of points, where each point
represents the time and location of an event. Examples of events include incidence
of disease, sightings or births of a species, or the occurrences of fires, earthquakes,
lightning strikes, tsunamis, or volcanic eruptions. Typically the spatial locations
are recorded in three spatial coordinates, e.g. longitude, latitude, and height or
depth, though sometimes only one or two spatial coordinates are available or of
interest. Figure 1 displays some point process data consisting of microearthquake
origin times and epicenters in Parkfield, CA, between 1988 and 1995, recorded
Keywords
burning index, conditional intensity function, spatio-temporal point
processes, wildfires.
Related Book
Other papers in this volume
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