Nonlinear Time Series Analysis Of Ecological Data
Collected In The Lagoon Of Orbetello, Italy
Author(s)
A. Facchini, C.Mocenni, E. Tiezzi & A. Vicino
Abstract
In this paper a nonlinear analysis of time series representing dissolved oxygen,
temperature, pH and salinity data, collected in the Lagoon of Orbetello (Grosseto,
Italy) is performed.
A first biological inspection of the data shows that the coastal area is highly
eutrophic and subject to unexpected phenomena, like anoxic and distrofic crises.
From a more theoretical point of view, the ecological complexity of this ecosystem
suggests the need to consider nonlinear models for understanding the dynamics of
the system.
The appearance of low dimensional deterministic chaos is demonstrated, using
the nonlinear time series analysis approach by means of attractor reconstruction
and the computation of the Maximum Lyapunov Exponent.
1 The Lagoon of Orbetello
The Orbetello lagoon is located in southern Tuscany, near Grosseto (Italian West
Coast). This lagoon is an important ecosystem from environmental and econom-ical
point of view. In fact it is very rich in flora and fauna, as well as productive
activities. The Orbetello lagoon is divided in two basins (Ponente and Levante)
and covers a total area of about 27 2 . The meteorological and environmental
situation is strongly influenced by the following data: the annual average tempera-ture
is 16 ◦C , the precipitation is scarce, the tides are limited ( รท45 cm ). Wind
intensity is the unique important phenomenon that favors in summer the water
movement. As a result of the above ecological status of the lagoon and the inten-sive
agriculture, aquaculture and urban activities, a strong eutrophication affects
Keywords
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