Alternative Future Growth Scenarios For
Utah’s Wasatch Front: Assessing The
Impacts Of Development On The Loss
Of Prime Agricultural Lands
Author(s)
G. Busch, R. J. Lilieholm, R. E. Toth & T. C. Edwards, Jr.
Abstract
Utah's Wasatch Front spans a narrow corridor from Ogden and Salt Lake City
south to Provo. Current forecasts predict that the region's population of 1.9
million will increase by 75% by 2030. This project developed a series of
alternative future growth scenarios to predict the spread of future development
within the 2.3 million ha study area. Satellite imagery from 1990 and 2000 was
used to develop a logistic regression model to predict the probability of future
development based on 30x30 m pixels. Independent variables included distance
from roads and development, slope, location within city boundaries, and
surrounding development density. Population forecasts were then allocated
across the region at various assumed future settlement densities, and the resulting
development footprint for the year 2030 was determined. We found that if future
development increased from the current density of 15 people/ha to 25 people/ha,
36,900 fewer ha of open space would be lost to development. In addition, if
future development occurs at the rate of 15 people/ha, the region will lose over
40,400 ha of prime agricultural lands over the next 30 years.
Keywords: demographics, economics, land use planning, logistic regression,
sustainable development, urban growth models.
Keywords
demographics, economics, land use planning, logistic regression,
sustainable development, urban growth models.
Related Book
Other papers in this volume
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