Projection Of Water Demand For River Basins:
Case Study In The Bloem Water
Service Area, South Africa
Author(s)
J. C. de Klerk & E. Pretorius
Abstract
Climate variability and the consequent problems of continuous urbanization
threaten water resource availability, particularly in less developed countries such
as South Africa. This necessitates the pro-active determination of water needs to
comply with the resource availability within a specified future period. Resulting
from this is the need for purpose-built management plans and tools to enable
water services providers to meet the water demand of the communities it serves.
A comprehensive literature study regarding methods for the projection of future
water needs has proven that very few of these models have been developed
successfully. It also became clear that it is of the utmost importance to
accommodate all possible relevant variables in such a model. The variables, to
mention a few, are climatological, anthropological, demographic,
socio-economic and economic factors, as well as water engineering related
factors (e.g. water losses, water leakages etc.). Also very important are the effect
of the HIV pandemic on population growth and consequently on water demand.
The following actions were seen as important in the development of the model:
selection of model structure (e.g. the choice of variables); choice of the
functional format (e.g. linear or logarithmic); determining/calculation of the
coefficients for the model (regression-analysis); verifying and testing of the
model; application of the model; and sharing application methods with the client.
The model furthermore has to comply with a variety of factors such as
unexpected and extreme temperature changes with high peak demands, water
tariffs, demographic movement, etc. and must be able to reflect reasons for
historic water consumption tendencies and project expected water consumption
using different predicted values for the relevant variables. The results from this
study will put the water services provider in a pro-active position regarding
prioritization of refurbishment of existing infrastructure, prioritizing needed
capital work (extension of infrastructure), and more importantly, to be in a
position to determine realistic tariffs and enable the organization to be managed
and operated in an effective way. The study area consists of two river basins of
which the water services provider (water board) is Bloem Water.
Keywords: water demand, water services provider, forecasting, modelling,
potable water.
Keywords
water demand, water services provider, forecasting, modelling,potable water.
Related Book
Other papers in this volume
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