Method Of Debris Flow Prediction Based On A
Numerical Weather Forecast And Its Application
Author(s)
F. Wei, K. Gao, P. Cui, K. Hu, J. Xu, G. Zhang & B. Bi
Abstract
Debris flow is one of the main natural hazards in mountains areas of China,
especially in south-western China. Because the region with debris flow hazard is
wide and the number of debris flow valleys is great, debris flow prediction is an
important measure of debris flow disaster mitigation. A prediction method of
debris flow based on a numerical weather forecast was carried out. According to
the conditions of debris flow formation including energy, incompact debris and
inducing factors (rainfall), the relative height, stratum, fault, land use, total
rainfall consisting of effective antecedent precipitation and forecasting
precipitation, and maximum precipitation intensity of 1 hour were selected as
factors for prediction of debris flow. A prediction model was set up with these
factors and extension theory which is a new kind of knowledge system based on
the concepts of matter-element and extension set. In the model, total rainfall and
maximum rainfall intensity of 1 hour obtained by a numerical weather forecast
are the principle input variables. South-western China including Sichuan,
Yunnan, Guizhou and Chongqing which has heaviest debris flow disasters in
China was selected as a case study region. An application system of debris flow
prediction based on the model was developed with GIS (ArcGIS) for the study
region.
Keywords: debris flow, prediction, numerical weather forecast, south-west of
China.
Keywords
debris flow, prediction, numerical weather forecast, south-west of
China.
Related Book
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