Author(s)
W. Timmermans, J. Jonkhof, V. Kuypers & O. Braadbaart
Abstract
This essay deals with the interrelationship between climate change, the flood, the
Brent Spar, one hundred years of discussion about sewerage systems, the
weather, the Anazasi Indians, Pim Fortuyn (a Dutch right-wing politician
assassinated on May 6, 2002), soccer fans, ecosystems, and innovation.
1 Unpredictability
History is a succession of quiet and turbulent times. Developments that have
been emerging gradually over the years may suddenly and apparently without
warning start accelerating, assuming a dramatic or revolutionary character. It is
of vital importance for any society to be able to counteract these changes by
alertness and preparedness.
The biblical Noah was no fool when he obeyed God’s command and built an
Ark. His actions seemed absurd: who would be so foolish as to build an ark in
the middle of a desert, miles away from the coast? Noah, however, built his ark
with hazardous times in mind. He prepared himself for an event that no person in
his right mind would ever consider to happen. Unlike so many others, he was
determined not to be taken by surprise. The dinosaurs did not give a toss about
comets, did they? The world could not imagine that the assassination of Franz
Ferdinand in 1914 would lead to the death of hundreds of thousands of soldiers
in muddy trenches a couple of years later.
In order to be able to understand how an event in a remote place can cruelly
disrupt our peaceful little lives, it is necessary to study unstable dynamic
systems. These are systems whose long term state of quietness and equilibrium
suddenly changes due to seemingly minor marginal changes and turbulently
transform into a new and unexpected state of equilibrium.
First, however, I will dilate upon the issue of the predictability of the future.
Is it possible for us to know everything, anticipate everything, and prepare
Keywords
Related Book
Other papers in this volume
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