A Daily Hydrological System Management
Model That Takes Meteorological Forecast Errors
Into Account
Author(s)
S. Krau, M. Latraverse, D. Tremblay & A. Turgeon
Abstract
Meteorological forecasts for the next few days are usually not detailed enough to
determine the exact probability distribution of the forecast precipitation, and,
hence, the probability distribution of the forecast inflow into the hydrological
system. However, the hydrological system manager is responsible for assessing
the risk of flooding and violating constraints when operating the reservoirs. This
paper deals with the problems involved in modeling forecast errors and of
determining an operating policy that takes such errors into account. This is
accomplished by first building an inflow scenario tree that takes forecast errors
into account and then by solving the reservoir management problem with that
tree. This paper describes how the tree was built.
Keywords: meteorological, forecast, hydrological, management, risk, flooding,
daily, stochastic, optimisation.
1 Introduction
The management of a hydrological system often implies the pursuit of various
divergent objectives. There is a need to optimize power plant generation but also
to regulate the flow of rivers, ensure a sufficient supply of drinking water,
comply with vacationing-related constraints and ensure the safety of waterside
communities as well as that of the structures. Management models most often
take these different objectives into account through flexible constraints, i.e.
constraints for which violation is tolerated, while minimizing the overall costs
incurred by such potential violations. Daily management can then be reduced to
a stochastic optimization problem related to a single objective. It consists in
Keywords
meteorological, forecast, hydrological, management, risk, flooding,
daily, stochastic, optimisation.
Related Book
Other papers in this volume
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