Recent Tendencies In Wind Storm
Climatology With Implications To Storm
Surge Statistics In Estonia
Author(s)
Ü. Suursaar, J. Jaagus & T. Kullas
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to present an overview of Estonian storm climatology
and a statistical study of wind storms and storm surges in the coastal waters of
Estonia, Baltic Sea. The results show a general positive trend both in local
storminess and storm surge heights over the last century. These tendencies are
probably associated with increased westerly circulation and cyclonic activity in
the Northern Atlantic. While in Estonian tide gauges, the mean sea level rise
(1.5–2.7 mm/yr) is roughly equal to or insignificantly higher than the recent
global sea level rise estimates (1.5–1.7 mm/yr), the trend estimates for annual
maximum sea levels vary between 3 and 10 mm/yr for different tide gauges and
study periods. Maximum value analysis revealed that, in general, the empirical
data of both annual maximum wind speeds and sea levels follow the Gumbel
distribution. However, in some windward bays of western Estonia two storm
surge events (in 1967 and 2005) are inconsistent with the theoretical
distributions, which indicate that, in these locations, the most extreme sea level
events are hardly predictable by means of return statistics.
Keywords: climate change, storm surges, hurricanes, sea level, trends.
1 Introduction
Estonia lies in the zone of moderate latitudes (57.5º–59.5º N, Fig. 1), which
serves as a prolongation of the so-called North Atlantic storm track (e.g.
Soomere [1]). As such, the predominant meteorological conditions in the area are
characterized by the frequent passage of cyclones, which accordingly cause
considerable sea level fluctuations in the nearly tideless eastern section of the
Keywords
climate change, storm surges, hurricanes, sea level, trends.
Related Book
Other papers in this volume
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