Using Machine Learning Techniques To Predict Defection Of Top Clients
Author(s)
W Buckinx, B Baesens, D Van den Poel, P Van Kenhove &
J Vanthienen
Abstract
Fierce competition in many industries causes switching behavior of customers. Because foregone profits of defected customers are significant, an increase of the retention rate can be very profitable. In this paper, we focus on the treatment of companies’ most promising current customers in a non-contractual setting. We build a model in order to predict churn behavior of top clients who will (partially) defect in the near future. We applied the following classification techniques: logistic regression, linear discriminant analysis, quadratic discriminant analysis, C4.5, neural networks and Naive Bayes. Their performance is quantified by the classification accuracy and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). The experiments were carried out on a real life data set obtained by a Belgian retailer. The article contributes in many ways. The results show that past customer behavior has predictive power to indicate future partial defection. This finding is from a companies’ point of view even more important than being able to define total defectors, which was until now the traditional goal in attrition research. It was found that neural networks performed better than the other classification techniques in terms of both classification accuracy and AUROC. Although the performance benefits are sometimes small in absolute terms, they are statistically significant and relevant from a marketing perspective. Finally it was found that the number of past shop visits and the time between past shop incidence are amongst the most predictive inputs for the problem at hand.
Keywords
Related Book
Other papers in this volume
Warning (2)
: foreach() argument must be of type array|object, null given [in
/var/www/dce7ae55-385b-4ffa-8595-3ec5e61ff110/public_html/app/templates/Papers/view.php, line
364]
Code
$counter = '0';
foreach ($paper['book']['Paper'] as $otherPaper) {
if ((!empty($otherPaper['name'])) && ($counter < '7') && ($otherPaper['available'] == 1)) {
Cake\Error\ErrorTrap->handleError() /var/www/dce7ae55-385b-4ffa-8595-3ec5e61ff110/public_html/app/templates/Papers/view.php, line 364
/var/www/dce7ae55-385b-4ffa-8595-3ec5e61ff110/public_html/app/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/View/View.php /var/www/dce7ae55-385b-4ffa-8595-3ec5e61ff110/public_html/app/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/View/View.php, line 1188
Cake\View\View->_evaluate() /var/www/dce7ae55-385b-4ffa-8595-3ec5e61ff110/public_html/app/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/View/View.php, line 1145
Cake\View\View->_render() /var/www/dce7ae55-385b-4ffa-8595-3ec5e61ff110/public_html/app/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/View/View.php, line 785
Cake\View\View->render() /var/www/dce7ae55-385b-4ffa-8595-3ec5e61ff110/public_html/app/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 712
Cake\Controller\Controller->render() /var/www/dce7ae55-385b-4ffa-8595-3ec5e61ff110/public_html/app/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 516
Cake\Controller\Controller->invokeAction() /var/www/dce7ae55-385b-4ffa-8595-3ec5e61ff110/public_html/app/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Controller/ControllerFactory.php, line 166
Cake\Controller\ControllerFactory->handle() /var/www/dce7ae55-385b-4ffa-8595-3ec5e61ff110/public_html/app/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Controller/ControllerFactory.php, line 141
Cake\Controller\ControllerFactory->invoke() /var/www/dce7ae55-385b-4ffa-8595-3ec5e61ff110/public_html/app/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 362
Cake\Http\BaseApplication->handle() /var/www/dce7ae55-385b-4ffa-8595-3ec5e61ff110/public_html/app/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Http/Runner.php, line 86
Cake\Http\Runner->handle() /var/www/dce7ae55-385b-4ffa-8595-3ec5e61ff110/public_html/app/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Http/Middleware/CsrfProtectionMiddleware.php, line 169
Cake\Http\Middleware\CsrfProtectionMiddleware->process() /var/www/dce7ae55-385b-4ffa-8595-3ec5e61ff110/public_html/app/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Http/Runner.php, line 82
Cake\Http\Runner->handle() /var/www/dce7ae55-385b-4ffa-8595-3ec5e61ff110/public_html/app/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Http/Middleware/BodyParserMiddleware.php, line 157
Cake\Http\Middleware\BodyParserMiddleware->process() /var/www/dce7ae55-385b-4ffa-8595-3ec5e61ff110/public_html/app/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Http/Runner.php, line 82
Cake\Http\Runner->handle() /var/www/dce7ae55-385b-4ffa-8595-3ec5e61ff110/public_html/app/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 118
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware->process() /var/www/dce7ae55-385b-4ffa-8595-3ec5e61ff110/public_html/app/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Http/Runner.php, line 82
Cake\Http\Runner->handle() /var/www/dce7ae55-385b-4ffa-8595-3ec5e61ff110/public_html/app/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php, line 69
Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware->process() /var/www/dce7ae55-385b-4ffa-8595-3ec5e61ff110/public_html/app/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Http/Runner.php, line 82
Cake\Http\Runner->handle() /var/www/dce7ae55-385b-4ffa-8595-3ec5e61ff110/public_html/app/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 115
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware->process() /var/www/dce7ae55-385b-4ffa-8595-3ec5e61ff110/public_html/app/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Http/Runner.php, line 82
Cake\Http\Runner->handle() /var/www/dce7ae55-385b-4ffa-8595-3ec5e61ff110/public_html/app/vendor/cakephp/debug_kit/src/Middleware/DebugKitMiddleware.php, line 60
DebugKit\Middleware\DebugKitMiddleware->process() /var/www/dce7ae55-385b-4ffa-8595-3ec5e61ff110/public_html/app/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Http/Runner.php, line 82
Cake\Http\Runner->handle() /var/www/dce7ae55-385b-4ffa-8595-3ec5e61ff110/public_html/app/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Http/Runner.php, line 60
Cake\Http\Runner->run() /var/www/dce7ae55-385b-4ffa-8595-3ec5e61ff110/public_html/app/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Http/Server.php, line 104
Cake\Http\Server->run() /var/www/dce7ae55-385b-4ffa-8595-3ec5e61ff110/public_html/app/webroot/index.php, line 37
[main]
