Safety Checks And Hit Probability Computation
In Numerical Trajectory Calculation Using Error
Propagation Technology
Author(s)
A. Kuhrt & H. Rothe
Abstract
In fire control systems using numerical trajectory integration, safety checks and
hit probability information still is based on empirical parameters. The need for a
modern and precise security testing on a defined level of confidence and tailored
hit probability computationwere the motivation to develop the technology outlined
in this paper. The methods are based on trajectory calculation using a modified
point mass model that considers drag, lift,Magnus and Coriolis forces, gravity and
all atmospheric influences. The Gaussian law of the propagation of the stochastic
error within a system of dependent and independent variables was used to generate
a vector of standard deviations for all error afflicted parameters every integration
time step. This approach leads to a flightpath dataset of the projectile, not only
giving information about position and velocity, but also about their standard
deviations. The check for a minimum height over ground or distance to no-fly
zones is very easy and can be performed with a changing level of confidence
throughout the trajectory. Hit probability calculation is done automatically and
considers all current data that has influence on the projectile’s trajectory.
Keywords: error propagation, safety checks, numerical integration, crest
clearance, hit probability, multivariate statistics.
1 Introduction
In fire control systems using numerical trajectory integration, safety checks and
hit probability information still is based on empirical parameters. Even modern
systems using time consuming routines on calculating numerical derivatives for a
trajectory perturbation in order to gain hit probability information. The need for a
Keywords
error propagation, safety checks, numerical integration, crest
clearance, hit probability, multivariate statistics.
Related Book
Other papers in this volume
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