The Simulation Of Passengers’ Time-space
Characteristics Using Ticket Sales Records
With Insufficient Data
Author(s)
J.-C. Jong & E.-F. Chang
Abstract
It is a very common approach for any business to analyze their historical sales
records to adjust operation strategy. Recently, Taiwan Railway Administration, a
government-owned railway operator, faces serious competitions from other
transportation systems. It becomes very urgent for the operator to modify its
timetables to meet demand patterns for increasing revenue. The key issue is how
to estimate passengers’ time-space characteristics. For railroads with advanced
automatic fare collection systems and simple service patterns, the estimation of
passenger flow may not be difficult since detailed travel information is available.
However, for systems with mixed traffic and insufficient ticket sales records, it
requires a scientific method to deduce actual travel patterns from limited
information. This study tried to establish such a model to reconstruct the timespace
distribution of passenger flow. The model has been applied to Taiwan
Railway Administration to estimate passenger flow. The result is very useful for
decision makers to assess the utilization of train capacities and to adjust service
plans, such as adding/deleting train services, changing stopping patterns, or
modifying service termini. The proposed model can be applied to other railroads
with mixed traffic operations and insufficient ticket sales records.
Keywords: passenger flow estimation, ticket sales records.
1 Introduction
Taiwan Railway Administration (TRA) is the oldest railway operator that
provides intercity, regional and commuter train services in Taiwan. In early years
when TRA was the only inter-city transportation provider, timetable preparations
Keywords
passenger flow estimation, ticket sales records
Related Book
Other papers in this volume
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