Short-term Forecasting In Road Evacuation:
Calibration Of A Travel Time Function
Author(s)
G. Musolino & A. Vitetta
Abstract
The paper presents a framework to define a function for estimating within-day
variations of travel time on a network. The framework integrates two main
components: a within-day traffic assignment model, that simulates the
interaction between travel demand flows and the road transport network, and a
dynamic vehicle routing model that provides optimal routes of emergency
vehicles. The variable linking the two models is the short-term forecasted travel
time, making it possible to capture anticipatory information on traffic dynamics
on the network in evacuation conditions.
Keywords: within-day traffic assignment, dynamic vehicle routing, short-term
forecasting.
1 Introduction
Correct information about travel time on a transport network is important to plan
optimal Vehicle Routing (VR). In congested urban networks this is a binding
task both in ordinary conditions for freight vehicles in order to perform efficient
delivery and pick-up operations (e.g. to adhere to strict time windows) and in
evacuation conditions (e.g. when a population has to be evacuated due to an
approaching calamitous event) for emergency vehicles in order to allow people
and goods to be rescued. In the former case the goal is to reduce costs of freight
transport, while in the latter case it is to mitigate risk for people and goods. ITS
technology enables real-time information on travel times to be provided on some
network elements (links, paths, …). However, it is necessary both to cover the
non-monitored elements of the network and to have reliable forecasted travel
Keywords
within-day traffic assignment, dynamic vehicle routing, short-term
forecasting
Related Book
Other papers in this volume
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