Spatially Modeled High Detail Population And
Climate Prospects For A European Transect:
An Outlook To Future Patterns Of Vulnerability
Author(s)
C. Aubrecht, K. Steinnocher, M. Köstl, J. Züger & W. Loibl
Abstract
Population exposure mapping forms an important part and is usually considered
the starting point for the assessment of the social dimension of vulnerability.
Integration of social structure would then further differentiate situation-specific
vulnerability patterns on a local scale. Census data available in inhomogeneous
spatial reference units are still considered the standard information input for
assessing potentially affected people, e.g. in case of an emergency. There is a
strong demand on population data that are independent from administrative
areas. Raster representations meet this demand but are not yet available for all
European countries. In this paper we will present an approach of spatial
disaggregation of population data for a European transect referring to current
population statistics and anticipated future prospects. A recently published new
data set providing the degree of soil sealing for the EU27+ countries is applied as
basic proxy for population density in the spatial disaggregation model. In order
to assess future patterns of climate change related vulnerability, results of a
European regional climate model are considered for projecting the situation in
the year 2030. Various variables such as ‘heat wave frequency’ and ‘number of
hot nights’ will be accounted for in that regard featuring conditions regarded
especially strenuous for elderly or physically weak persons. Integrated analysis
of the population and climate prospects data enables identification of hot spots in
the examined European transect, i.e. regions of high population density and
particularly demanding projected climatic patterns. In the context of climate
impact mitigation as well as for the assessment and management of future risks
and emergencies, integrated and consistent spatial analyses on European scale
are of utmost importance for decision making processes as well as for risk
communication and future safety and security considerations.
Keywords: social vulnerability, population exposure, spatial disaggregation,
climate prospects, regional climate model, heat wave.
Keywords
social vulnerability, population exposure, spatial disaggregation,
climate prospects, regional climate model, heat wave
Related Book
Other papers in this volume
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