Traffic Safety: Non-linear Causation For
Injury Severity
Author(s)
M. Mougeot & R. Azencott
Abstract
In Europe traffic accidents are now widely recorded in national databases. In view
of the massive amounts of accident data, the use of data mining tools is essential
to sift truly relevant information. Classical statistical tools evaluate the strength
of potential causal relationships by essentially linear techniques, or strongly rely
on ad hoc specific models. We outline here how mutual information ratios based
on conditional entropy contribute to rigorously quantify the influence of causation
factors on injury severity, with no hypothesis on underlying relationships between
observed variables. We successfully apply this approach to analyze causation
factors in the German In Depth Accident Study database, which is one of the
largest and most complete in depth accident survey and data collection in Europe.
The results show that additional safety gains potential are expected fromintelligent
speed adaptation systems, collision warning and collision avoidance systems.
Keywords: risk analysis, safety, mutual information, conditional entropy.
1 Introduction
Traffic accidents are a major concern due to their economic and social costs and,
above all, because accident injuries are often incapacitating or fatal. Accident
injuries can result from a large number of causes, including human, vehicle,
safety or environment factors. Information on traffic accidents in Europe are today
stored in large databases that systematically record many descriptive fields. In the
German In Depth Accident Study (GIDAS) database, dedicated to traffic accidents
in Germany, more than 800 fields are assigned to describe each accident and more
than 2000 new accidents are stored each year. Extraction of significant injury
causation factors hidden in massive databases allows a better understanding and
Keywords
risk analysis, safety, mutual information, conditional entropy
Related Book
Other papers in this volume
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