Probabilistic And Fuzzy Fault-tree Analyses For
Modelling Cave-in Accidents
Author(s)
H. M. Al-Humaidi
Abstract
Construction injury accidents result from different causes. Risk evaluation for
cave-ins using traditional fault-tree analysis can be difficult, especially since the
variables resulting in cave-ins are unique; in addition, historical data, when
available, is often incomplete. In construction, assessment of risk is based on
linguistic terms using subjective judgment of linguistic values such as severe,
very likely, etc. Such linguistic terms are best modeled using fuzzy set theory.
The traditional FTA method has been widely used to calculate the probability of
the top undesired event, which is based on historical data of the occurrence and
the severity of the basic events. FTA implementation into construction projects
needs to be modified since assessment of contributing events to cave-in accidents
is based on managerial experience using experiential subjective expressions.
This paper introduces a fuzzy triangular model to assess risks associated with
excavation work in advance and helps management prepare solutions in advance.
Keywords: Fuzzy Logic, fuzzy set, probabilistic fault-tree analysis, fuzzy faulttree
analysis, cave-in accidents, construction safety.
1 Introduction
Cave-in is the collapse of unsupported trench or tunnel soil edges that take place
during excavation. Cave-in accidents result from numerous causes, including
management and worker actions, support-system materials, equipment control,
weather and natural disasters. These antecedents are categorized into procedural,
triggering and enabling causes. Procedural causes are indirect; they impact the
frequency of cave-in occurrences because they result in enabling or triggering
causes separately or together. Procedural causes arise from management and
control issues. Examples of management-related procedural causes are poor
Keywords
Fuzzy Logic, fuzzy set, probabilistic fault-tree analysis, fuzzy faulttree
analysis, cave-in accidents, construction safety
Related Book
Other papers in this volume
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