A Statistical Approach To Analyze User
Behaviour In Road Evacuation
Author(s)
F. Russo & G. Chilà
Abstract
The international literature related to evacuation conditions proposes many
studies which focus on the hurricane emergency case and consider revealed
preference (RP) surveys for demand model estimation. As RP data are not
available for all dangerous events, such models, derived from observation of past
evacuation behaviour, cannot be directly applied to other dangerous events.
Prediction of user behaviour becomes essential. For this purpose, evacuation
trials and stated preference (SP) surveys may be conducted. As a first step,
statistical analysis of stated behaviour in emergency conditions could be carried
out. In this work we propose several hypothetical scenarios, which could be
classified as SP scenarios, considering three different dangerous situations, with
delayed effects in time. A sample of users is considered and their responses are
statistically analyzed to study user behaviour in evacuation conditions.
Keywords: evacuation conditions, hypothetical scenarios.
1 Introduction
In evacuation conditions, demand models specified and calibrated in ordinary
conditions cannot be directly applied for several reasons [1, 2]. The international
literature related to evacuation conditions proposes many studies which focus on
the hurricane emergency case and which consider demand model estimation
revealed preference (RP) surveys. The latter supply preferences inferred from
observations of a decision maker's actual choices, in relation to real contexts.
In much of the literature, two user decisions are simulated: whether or not to
evacuate and when. These decisions are simulated through a statistical approach,
Keywords
evacuation conditions, hypothetical scenarios
Related Book
Other papers in this volume
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