Methodology For Risk Analysis In Railway
Tunnels Using Monte Carlo Simulation
Author(s)
G. Vanorio & J. M. Mera
Abstract
In the context of safety analyses for railway tunnels, various efforts have been
made to try to identify and evaluate the possible consequences of undesired
events. Very few of these efforts have proposed techniques or methodologies
allowing the risks involved to be quantified. By counting on a Quantitative Risk
Analysis (QRA) methodology applied in the planning of railway tunnels, we
would be able to know and quantify the potential consequences of these risks.
The present paper sets out a QRA Methodology, applied to railway tunnels,
fundamentally based on the analysis and combination of scenarios, using the
\“Event Tree” and \“Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS)” techniques. The basic
tools for the methodology are the \“PrecisionTree” and \“@RISK” software
programmes that allow events with uncertain occurrence probabilities to be
analyzed using the formulation of decision-tree models and the risk assessed
through the use of Monte Carlo simulations.
The development of a QRA methodology, based on the use of \“Event Tree”
and \“MCS” techniques, offers a powerful and effective way to quantify the risks
of possible fatalities in railway tunnels.
The application of the QRA methodology in the Planning or Conceptual
Engineering phases of a project constitutes a fundamental tool as it allows the
possible infrastructure types or solutions to be assessed and compared from the
standpoint of safety in order to select the Tunnel System to be implemented.
Keywords: quantitative risk analysis (QRA), Monte Carlo simulation (MCS),
risks, safety, event tree, occurrence probabilities, uncertain variables, fatalities,
tunnel system.
Keywords
quantitative risk analysis (QRA), Monte Carlo simulation (MCS),
risks, safety, event tree, occurrence probabilities, uncertain variables, fatalities,
tunnel system
Related Book
Other papers in this volume
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