Evaluation Of Coefficients For An Energy
Security Indicators System
Author(s)
J. Augutis, R. Krikštolaitis, A. E. Lutynska, S. Pečiulytė
& I. Žutautaitė
Abstract
A sufficient security level of energy supply is vital to the functioning of modern
economy since reliable supply is necessary to ensure industrial activities and
satisfy population needs. In our previous papers (Lithuanian energy security
level assessment based on indicator dependence (2011), Dynamic model for
energy security level assessment (2012)) there was constructed a system of
energy security indicators for the investigation of the Lithuanian energy security
level. A security indicator is a special index which provides numerical values to
important issues for the security of energy sector. Further, a dynamic indicator
model, which includes interdependencies between indicators, was created for
assessment of the energy security level. This model enables us to forecast the
Lithuanian energy security level according to different development scenarios,
such as a building of liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal, electricity connection
between Sweden and Lithuania (NordBalt), etc. Since technical parameters of
new objects are not exactly known; their influence on indicators are expressed as
random variables with known probabilistic distributions. A security indicators
model based on historic data is adjusted by a probabilistic model of LNG or
NordBalt influence on indicators using the Bayesian approach. The purpose of
this paper is to evaluate the coefficients in a dynamic model of indicators for
energy security level assessment. These coefficients are calculated in two ways:
using algebraic and least square methods. This paper presents the dynamic
indicator model, calculation methods of coefficients of indicators equations
system and pilot calculations.
Keywords: energy supply security, differential equations, Bayesian approach.
Keywords
energy supply security, differential equations, Bayesian approach
Related Book
Other papers in this volume
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