Reliability Analysis And Prediction Of The Failure
Process Of Some Traction Converters
Author(s)
M. Guida, P. Poli & G. Pulcini
Abstract
This paper studies the failure process of the traction converters mounted on some
trains produced by AnsaldoBreda SpA and operating in the district of the city of
Naples. Each train is equipped with three traction converters and 23 new trains
were monitored from their entry in service over a time period of about four
years. A preliminary analysis of the observed failure data, based on a nonparametric
estimation procedure, showed an overall decreasing trend of the
failure intensity during the monitoring period, as it is often observed during
the early life of complex systems undergoing minimal repair. As such, the failure
process of converters is assumed to be a non-homogeneous Poisson process
(NHPP) over the covered mileage. Then, NHPP with different decreasing
intensity functions are considered, and the process that better fits the observed
data, namely the log-linear process, is chosen to analyse the observed failure
process. Maximum likelihood estimate of the process parameters is then
obtained, from which several reliability characteristics are estimated under the
conservative hypothesis that the failure intensity remains constant beyond
the end of the observation period. Finally, the probability distribution of the
annual mileage of the train is derived, that allows the reliability characteristics to
be estimated in terms of the calendar time, too.
Keywords: traction converters, reliability analysis, nonhomogeneous Poisson
process, annual mileage distribution.
Keywords
traction converters, reliability analysis, nonhomogeneous Poisson
process, annual mileage distribution.
Related Book
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