Induced Development In The Transportation Investments Corridors -
The Probability Appearance Appraisal Method Based On The Land Use Profiles
Author(s)
V. Depolo
Abstract
Transportation system investments (Infrastructure and/or Public Transport Subsystem) produce the redistribution of existing (short-term effect) and generate the new travel demand (long-term impact of investment). The induced development is the key factor of new demand generation. The probability of induced development appearance appraisal method, developed by the author, is based on the use of the Land Use Profiles, defined for three basic land uses: housing, commercial activities and industry/storehouse, based on two criterion sets.
Forecasts based on the Land Use Profiles are evaluated by the use of experts’ interview for real estate, whose estimates are in the range between 5 to 25%
(in some specific sites the percentage is even greater) compared to the existing/planned volume of development. This is equal with forecasts performed on the basis of the method and can be interpreted as an evidence of forecasting results.
The essential importance of the authors’ work is that it describes adjustment process in the investment-influenced area. It also represents one step towards the induced demand forecasting method improvements, whose existence, despite evidences, was neglected by the part of the professional community.
Keywords
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