Statistical Method For The Evaluation Of Railway
Systems Modifications
Author(s)
M. Chandesris
Abstract
Railway production plans daily face random events. Therefore, before setting up
modifications for the railway system (changing the network, new signalling
system, new timetable, etc.), its robustness to stochastic events must be
estimated.
Tests cannot actually be carried out, which is why the SNCF uses a traffic
simulator developed by its research department. Up to now, the timetable
robustness has been estimated by considering a few small incidents and their
simulated consequences on train delays.
The new approach we are working on consists of taking into account the
stochastic dimension in the evaluation of robustness. The methodology is divided
into three parts:
• Identifying randomness to be taken into account when evaluating
robustness
• Studying the robustness of the railway system:
o determine experimental design
o carry out simulations
o aggegrate results
• Evaluating the lack of precision in the results
The aim of this project is to develop the required statistical methods and to
design a decision tool following the three steps above. It will help the
infrastructure managers to evaluate, in a statistical manner, the robustness of
various railway system configurations.
1 Timetable robustness and traffic simulator
Railway production plans daily face random events. Therefore, before setting up
modifications for the railway system (changing the network, new signalisation
Keywords
Related Book
Other papers in this volume
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