Simulation Of Disturbances And Modelling Of
Expected Train Passenger Delays
Author(s)
A. Landex & O. A. Nielsen
Abstract
Forecasts of regularity for railway systems have traditionally – if at all – been
computed for trains, not for passengers. It has only relatively recently become
possible to model and evaluate the actual passenger delays. This paper describes
how it is possible to use a passenger regularity model to estimate the actual
passenger delays. The combination of the passenger regularity model with
railway simulation software is described, demonstrating the possibility of
predicting future passenger delays. The described passenger regularity model is
run daily to calculate the passenger delays of the Copenhagen suburban rail
network the previous day. The results obtained with the passenger regularity
model used together with the simulation software are very similar to the daily
calculated passenger regularity of the Copenhagen suburban network. As the
combined method includes simulation software and reflects the actual passenger
regularity, it is possible to use a combination of a passenger regularity model and
simulation software to evaluate and compare future scenarios.
Keywords: railway planning, timetable, regularity, simulation, passenger delay.
1 Introduction
Relatively recently has it become possible to model and evaluate the actual
passenger delay on large scale railway networks. The method used to model and
evaluate actual passenger delays was presented in 2004 by Nielsen [2] and has
since been optimised and evaluated [3, 4]. In the planning process, the passenger
delays are often calculated by assuming that no passengers transfer to other
trains or update/change their route choice when delay or cancellations occur.
This assumption does not reflect the passengers’ travel behaviour.
Keywords
railway planning, timetable, regularity, simulation, passenger delay.
Related Book
Other papers in this volume
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