Using The Triptych Model For Future Burden
Sharing – A Case Study For Flanders
Author(s)
K. Claes & I. Moorkens
Abstract
To prevent extreme damage caused by climate change, the EU put forward a
target of a maximum temperature rise of 2°C. As a consequence, the global
greenhouse gas emissions should be cut by 15 to 50% by 2050. However,
eventually every Member State has to be given a specific emission reduction
target. Since carbon emissions have a cost, a protectionist reflex in burden
sharing negotiations can be expected. Therefore, as with Triptych in 1997, a
scientific model-based proposition will probably be generated, prior to political
discussions. To be acceptable, this model must be transparent. A crucial aspect is
how to deal with local conditions: Are degree-days to be incorporated? Should
countries be compensated for phasing out nuclear energy?
A case study was carried out applying the Triptych model to the situation in
Flanders. The Triptych approach is a sector specific approach distinguishing
three groups of economic sectors: the energy-intensive industry, the powerproducing
industry and the domestic sectors. Two variants of the model were
used: an improved version of the original European model and a global version.
In the former, specific CO2 emissions from the energy-intensive industry are
expected to be reduced by 1.5% per year. In the power-producing sector the
energy efficiency is improved by 1% each year. The domestic sectors take into
account convergence of 1990 per capita emission levels to equal per capita
allowances in 2030. In the Global Triptych approach, convergence is applied to
all three sectors. The outcome of the model was compared to projected energy
use in Flanders until 2020. The comparison shows a gap between the results of
the Triptych exercise and what may be expected in a business-as-usual scenario.
Keywords: climate change, burden sharing, CO2 emissions, Triptych model,
emission projections.
Keywords
climate change, burden sharing, CO2 emissions, Triptych model,
emission projections.
Related Book
Other papers in this volume
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