Assessment Of Extreme Discharges Of
The Vltava River In Prague
Author(s)
M. Holický, K. Jung & M. Sýkora
Abstract
Damage of construction works due to flooding in 1997 and 2002 in the Czech
Republic initiated investigations of structural failures and reassessment of
available data for discharge extremes. In this study, hydrological data for 166
annual maximum discharges of the Vltava River in Prague since 1827 are
analysed using various statistical methods. Moment characteristics of the
measurements – the mean, standard deviation and skewness – are estimated and
the enhancing effect of an exceptional observation in 2002 is detected. The
annual maxima are described by two- or three-parameter lognormal distributions
and the extreme value distributions of the type I and II. Standard statistical
Kolmogorov and chi-square tests are applied to assess goodness of fit of the
theoretical models. It appears that a two-parameter lognormal distribution may
be the most suitable theoretical model. Assuming this distribution, extreme
discharges corresponding to characteristic and design values are estimated. It is
shown that the partial safety factor estimated from the measurements
significantly differs from the recommended value of 1.5. The discharge in 2002
corresponds to an exceptionally long return period. It is concluded that statistical
methods provide a valuable background for evaluation and prediction of
discharges. However, the presented analysis should be further improved to
include non-statistical aspects that influence discharges such as the effects of
water management and deforestation.
Keywords: discharge, probabilistic assessment, extremes, failure, statistical
methods.
Keywords
discharge, probabilistic assessment, extremes, failure, statistical
methods.
Related Book
Other papers in this volume
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