Recent Developments In Loss Of Life And
Evacuation Modelling For Flood Event
Management In The UK
Author(s)
D. Lumbroso & M. Di Mauro
Abstract
To date the work done in the UK to assess the loss of life and evacuation times
for flood risk areas has been limited. To provide the most accurate assessment of
loss of life and evacuation times a complex model is required. This paper details
the application of a prototype, agent-based Life Safety Model (LSM) to estimate
the loss of life in two areas of the Thames Estuary. The LSM models individual
receptors (e.g. people and cars) and their dynamic interaction with the
floodwater. The LSM estimates deaths from: drowning; exhaustion; building
collapse; and vehicles being swept away, as well as evacuation times.
The LSM offers a scientifically robust method of assessing residual risk
behind flood defences and downstream of dams in terms of fatalities.
Importantly, it allows the comparison of different emergency management
strategies (e.g. the use of safe havens) that can assist in reducing the loss of life
during future floods and dam breaks. The model was validated against historical
data from the Canvey Island flood in 1953, during which 58 people lost their
lives. The LSM was then applied to the Thamesmead embayment to assess the
results for a range of scenarios.
Keywords: evacuation modelling, flood event management, loss of life.
1 Introduction
Despite the global impacts of floods there are a limited number of methods to
estimate the loss of life and the evacuation times for flood events. Loss of life
modelling can be performed at different levels of detail as follows:
• Macro or overall event level where one mortality rate is applied to the
whole of the exposed population;
Keywords
evacuation modelling, flood event management, loss of life.
Related Book
Other papers in this volume
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