Development And Evaluation Of
FLEMOps – A New Flood Loss
Estimation MOdel For The Private Sector
Author(s)
A. H. Thieken, A. Olschewski, H. Kreibich,
S. Kobsch & B. Merz
Abstract
The estimation of flood losses is an essential component for risk-oriented flood
design, risk mapping or financial appraisals in the reinsurance sector. However,
only simple models, e.g. stage-damage curves, have been used frequently.
Further, the reliability of flood loss and risk estimates is fairly unknown, since
flood loss models are scarcely validated.
In the aftermath of flooding in August 2002 large data sets of flood losses
were collected at affected properties in Germany. These data were used to derive
multi-factorial loss models. This paper presents FLEMOps – the Flood Loss
Estimation Model for the private sector, which estimates direct monetary flood
losses of residential buildings and household contents considering water level,
building type and building quality. In an additional model stage (FLEMOps+),
the effects of private precautionary measures as well as of the contamination of
the floodwater can be quantified. Together with census data and land use
information the model is adapted for applications on the meso-scale.
Further, different data sets of repair costs for single buildings and in whole
municipalities were used to validate loss estimates on the micro- as well as on
the meso-scale. First results show that the model FLEMOps+ outperforms simple
stage-damage-functions.
Keywords: damage estimation, precaution, contamination, model validation,
flood losses.
Keywords
damage estimation, precaution, contamination, model validation,
flood losses.
Related Book
Other papers in this volume
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