Approach To Lithuanian Energy Supply
State Assessment
Author(s)
J. Augutis, E. Ušpuras & V. Matuzienė
Abstract
Energy supply in Lithuania will be particularly vulnerable after the Ignalina
Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) shutdown at the end of 2009, when a new power
plant is designed. Presently, gas supply is expensive and unreliable, and
electricity connections with western countries have not been built. Technical,
economical, social political and terrorist disturbances will become very
important, as well as the ability of the Lithuanian energy sector to overcome
these obstacles and the consequences which are important to foresee for decision
makers. In this paper a methodology is presented to assess an energy security
level, the assumptions taken into account, data collected for the model, and prior
economical analysis results are shown. The model is in the building stage. It will
be created for the assessment of the risks using probabilistic safety analysis on
the SES RISK framework. The real composition of Lithuanian energy supply
(energy sources, networks) is reflected in the model, possible initiating events
are taken into account, and their probabilities are determined by expert methods
or modelled using an economical model.
Keywords: Lithuanian energy supply, energy supply assessment.
Keywords
Lithuanian energy supply, energy supply assessment
Related Book
Other papers in this volume
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