Predicting The Outcome Of Plans: Retrospect And
Prospects Of The Use Of Models In Planning
Author(s)
G. Pozoukidou
Abstract
A planner who claims the quality and assets of his or her plans must be able to
justify or even prove their anticipated outcomes. In the midst of the conflicting
and sometimes contrasting views of how planning should be done, it seems that
the use of models might be the most productive approach.
Information technology and urban models entered planning around the 1950s,
in a very dynamic but also unilateral way. This in fact created two large groups
of planning oriented professionals with regard to the use of models in planning.
On the one hand there were the planners that argued that sophisticated analytical
tools could provide the foundation for the new science of planning. On the other,
there were the more imaginative, creative and wilful planners that viewed the
rationalization and mathematical nature of analysis (maybe even the role of
analysis itself), with much distrust.
Today there is still diversity in the way planners think about models and their
role in plan-making. This probably results from the implicit assumption that
models would somehow not aid but replace planners’ control over the process of
planning. If someone seeks the reason for this misperception he will come to the
conclusion that it results from planners’ limited understanding of what models as
planning tools represent and that there has been little research for an appropriate
role of information technology in planning. After 60 years of computers first
entering planning profession, it won’t be an overstatement to say that despite
their unambiguous significance in planning and plan-making, there has been
little or no use of them in professional planning practice.
This paper is an attempt to define or better redefine the role of models in
planning and plan making. For that there is a review of information technology
and its use in planning over the last fifty years followed by, a parallel exploration
of the emerging philosophical needs and theories in planning discipline. The
Keywords
planning theory, urban models, land use modelling, planning support systems
Related Book
Other papers in this volume
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