A Protocol Analysis Of Urban Population Spatial
Distribution Under Rising Sea Levels:
A Case Example Of Tainan City, Taiwan
Author(s)
C.-H. Lu & Y.-J. Chen
Abstract
Global warming and climate change has been affecting our living environment,
including rising sea levels, thermal expansion, changes of rainfall and
ecosystems. Among these, the rising sea level directly results in an encroaching
coastline that invades present land use and influences human inhabited areas.
Taiwan, as a subtropical island, would be significantly affected. This paper
attempts to explore the impacts of land use changes and population
re-distribution against a rising sea level, and selects Tainan city, which is an
alluvial fan city in the Taiwan area, as a case example to propose a protocol
approach to modelling the effects. Firstly, this paper examined the change of
coast line and flood areas when the sea level rises. Following the result of land
change, we simulated the reallocation of population distribution by adopting the
heuristic Hansen model under the assumption of keeping the land use of the
non-flooded areas unchanged. Our current results indicate that the land space is
reduced by 1.7%, 13%, and 59% when the sea level rises by 1m, 2m, and 3m,
respectively. This paper also concludes that the population increases the fastest
in currently less developed areas, such as the Annan district, which is the most
rural area of Tainan city. On the other hand, the highly developed areas, such as
the East and Middle districts, which are the most attractive locations and the
transportation centre of Tainan city, would remain as the core area with the
highest population density under our assumption of sea level change.
Keywords: global warming, sea level, land use, Hansen model, Tainan City.
Keywords
global warming, sea level, land use, Hansen model, Tainan City
Related Book
Other papers in this volume
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