Socio-economic And Energy Scenario
Development In Vietnam
Author(s)
T. T. Tran, M. Namazu & Y. Matsuoka
Abstract
In supporting research on the socio-economic implication of energy policy,
future scenarios are needed. Currently, most of the developing countries,
especially in Southeast Asia, do not have specific targets for energy development
rather than putting their main focus on economic growth. However, under natural
constraints, especially energy resources, these countries must develop their own
pathways in order to achieve socio-economic targets without compromising the
environment and scarce natural resources. This paper provides the methodology
to develop the platform of socio-economic and energy scenarios that includes
two main steps. Firstly, the controversial parameters such as GDP and population
are developed to be scale indices. Lately, the scale-based linear complement uses
these scale indices to estimate the full-trend scenario for other parameters. The
GAMS (General Algebraic Modelling System) programming is used in the
processes of scale index development and scenario complement.
This study provides the social, economic, and energy platform for researchers
and policy-makers in analyzing the implication of socio-economic development
to energy consumption as well as the possible CO2 emissions, towards achieving
sustainable development. Similarly to Vietnam, other developing countries may
also face the lack of an energy database problem. Therefore, this study can be
improved and expanded to those countries, especially in the Asian Pacific region.
Keywords: scenario development, scale index, interpolation, compatibility
analysis, information weighting, low carbon policy, sustainable development.
Keywords
scenario development, scale index, interpolation, compatibility
analysis, information weighting, low carbon policy, sustainable development
Related Book
Other papers in this volume
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