Dealing With Risk And Uncertainty In Irrigation
Water Management: An Australian Perspective
Author(s)
Z. Paydar & E. Qureshi
Abstract
With increasing pressure on limited water resources, water managers and policy
makers face many challenges to meet various, often conflicting, demands with
limited resources and much uncertainty (e.g. climate change) and often lack
effective tools to investigate different options under uncertain conditions. The
recent studies in the Murray Darling Basin have highlighted that there will be
less water available in the future in many parts of the Basin which introduces a
large uncertainty for the future of irrigation. However, the water sector lacks a
robust approach to quantify the risks and criteria for system resilience and
thresholds for setting up risk management strategies. Adopting the basic idea of
spreading the risk from the field of finance, the \“Portfolio Theory” can be used
in quantifying the risk against uncertainties associated with each option dealing
with water scarcity. The aim of this analytical approach is to increase adaptive
capacity of the system by diversifying options and mitigating the associated risk
and choosing more robust portfolios. In this paper, a range of options (e.g.
retiring land from irrigation, water savings measures, ground/surface water
conjunctive use, use of alternative water for irrigation) are considered and ways
of applying the \“Portfolio Theory” are explored to formulate a risk-based
approach to water demand management and planning with diversified options to
deal with uncertain supply sources.
Keywords: Portfolio Theory, irrigation, risk, uncertainty, drought.
1 Introduction
Water allocations in the south eastern parts of Australia have been reduced since
2006 due to the prolonged drought. Climate change is expected to reduce water
Keywords
Portfolio Theory, irrigation, risk, uncertainty, drought
Related Book
Other papers in this volume
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