A Hybrid Monte Carlo–possibilistic Method To
Evaluate Soil Erosion In An Alpine Valley
Author(s)
F. Mazza, L. Longoni, M. Papini & D. Brambilla
Abstract
The high number of complex processes involved in soil erosion and sediment
delivery make their understanding and reproduction a difficult task. Alpine
valleys, characterized by high slopes, are particularly susceptible to severe soil
erosion. Two of the main consequences are silting of water reservoirs and
fostering of shallow landslides. In the last decades several models for the
evaluation of sediment production and delivery have been proposed. Different
approaches can be split into two main categories: bottom-up and top-down
models. Bottom-up models are designed to reproduce the main physical
processes involved in soil erosion; these methods are really complicated from a
computational point of view. Instead top-down models, like the Gavrilovic one,
reproduce the phenomenon at the basin scale with a low number of parameters.
In this paper the authors present a hybrid Monte Carlo and possibilistic
approach to the Gavrilovic method, designed to take into account uncertainties
on input data. An example of application on a test basin situated in the Italian
Alps is used to show the potential of the proposed method. The basin was split
into sub-areas to reduce the subjectivity of the choice of empirical coefficients. A
quantitative comparison between measures of average sediment yield and results
obtained with the proposed method was performed.
Keywords: soil erosion, silting, Monte Carlo methods, epistemic uncertainty.
1 Introduction
Soil erosion and transport are two complex phenomena, acting on a wide range
of scales, that are far from be fully understood and modeled, mainly because of
the lack of knowledge about the physical mechanisms governing them. Many
Keywords
soil erosion, silting, Monte Carlo methods, epistemic uncertainty
Related Book
Other papers in this volume
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