Outlook Of Future Discharge At The Dam
Watershed Considering Climate Change
Author(s)
D. K. Koh & J.-H. Park
Abstract
Rapid climate change has made the job of water managers harder and has
increased the imperative for considering climate change impacts on rainfall and
runoff predictions. The purpose of this study is to predict future runoffs at the
Yongdam and Daechung dams under meteorological regimes adjusted for the
impacts of climate change. For this study, weather series data including
temperature and precipitation forecasts up to the year 2090 were used. These
forecasts are compiled and disseminated officially by the Korea Meteorology
Agency (KMA). The forecasts are generated using mesocale (MM5) Regional
Circulation Model (RCM) (27 km resolution) and Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change’s (IPCC) A1B emissions scenario, employing the results of
coupled climate model ECHO-G (400 km resolution) as boundary conditions.
SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was used for rainfall-runoff modeling
for the period 2011 to 2010. The GIS based SWAT model can simulate temporal
and spatial distributions of surface and subsurface flows. The weather series was
fed into the SWAT model to simulate the streamflows associated with other
hydrologic components such as subsurface flow, soil moisture contents etc. This
approach is applied to the Yongdam Dam and Daechung Dam in the Geum River
Basin, Korea. The results show that annual mean inflow to the dam reservoirs
will be decreased by 7.6% compared to the latest 10 year observation. Regarding
the seasonal variation, dam reservoir inflows during winter and autumn are going
to increase, while in summer less inflow is predicted. It is necessary to conceive
a strategy for dam development and management, which is cognizant of the
impacts of climate change.
Keywords: climate change, discharge, RCM, SWAT, A1B scenario.
Keywords
climate change, discharge, RCM, SWAT, A1B scenario
Related Book
Other papers in this volume
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