Willamette Water 2100: River Basins As Complex
Social-ecological Systems
Author(s)
M. Santelmann, J. McDonnell, J. Bolte, S. Chan,
A. T. Morzillo & D. Hulse
Abstract
This paper describes a project to model river basins as complex social-ecological
systems. We propose hypotheses about system resilience to water scarcity and
climate change that can be examined with an agent-based modeling approach,
and outline a methodology integrating hydrology, ecology, economics,
engineering and stakeholder inputs to test these hypotheses using the Willamette
River Basin (Oregon, USA) as an example system. The response of society to
change is often overlooked in studies that focus primarily on the biophysical
sciences to develop alternative future scenarios and predict system responses. If
the interactions between society and the ecological system are poorly represented
or left out of modeling approaches, this will compromise our understanding of
feedbacks to the system, and the potential consequences of policy or
management actions. Through Stakeholder Learning Action Networks we are
gathering project-relevant knowledge in a co-learning environment on water use,
management, policies and issues that impact stakeholders, and the types of
project outputs desired by stakeholders. This information is useful for
understanding the social- ecological system feedbacks, anticipating water
scarcity, and informing integrative water systems responses. Modeling tools that
can generate and explore alternative outcomes based on different sets of social
and ecological conditions and their interaction within the system could also lead
to a better understanding of ecosystem resilience and help guide decision making
in the face of climate change and potential water scarcity.
Keywords: resilience, water scarcity, adaptive cycles, complex adaptive systems,
stakeholder learning and action networks.
Keywords
resilience, water scarcity, adaptive cycles, complex adaptive systems,
stakeholder learning and action networks.
Related Book
Other papers in this volume
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