A Multivariate Model For Flood Forecasting Of Lake Levels
Author(s)
M. Mohssen
Abstract
A new multivariate flood forecast model for lake levels has been developed. The
model is based on the concept of the projection theorem, to obtain the projection
of lakes flood levels on total rainfall forecasted or observed at nearby rainfall
gauges. A comprehensive analysis of 20 historical and significant rainfall events
on Lake Wakatipu and Lake Wanaka in the South Island of New Zealand has
been carried out to detect the best time series and functions to be used for this
projection.
The study showed that linear relationships exist between total lake rise and
total rainfalls observed at available rain gauges. In addition, during flood events,
linear relationship can be utilised to represent the function between observed
cumulative rainfall and cumulative lake rise at 10 hours (Lake Wakatipu) and 7
hours (Lake Wanaka) of lead time. Analysis of relationships between lake rise
and alternative options for available rainfall sites resulted in the choice of rainfall
sites for the best forecast model. Parameter estimation of a multivariate model
which includes both Lake Wakatipu and Lake Wanaka flood levels and the
selected rainfall sites was carried out by using the projection equations of
orthonormal sets. The derived model was applied to two observed events which
were not included in the calibration process. The new model has performed well
in forecasting flood levels of both lakes.
Keywords: flood forecast, flood modelling, rainfall-runoff, lake level, projection
theorem, Hilbert space.
Keywords
flood forecast, flood modelling, rainfall-runoff, lake level, projection
theorem, Hilbert space
Related Book
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