Reservoir Inflow Forecasts Using Snowmelt Modelling
Author(s)
A. B. Dariane & A. Barati
Abstract
Runoff from snowrnelt is essential in riverflow forecasting of mountainous areas. Karoon reservoir, located in southwest of Iran, plays an important role in the hydropower energy production of the country. The basin upstream from the reservoir is about 27080 square kilometer, with altitudes ranging from 800 to 4000 meters above the sea level (masl). Proper management of the reservoir highly depends on the accuracy of the forecasted inflows. In this study a set of snowmelt runoff-forecasting models was developed for Karoon reservoir. For this purpose, four series of models were developed using a multiple regression modeling approach. The models are able to forecast in the form of one-month up to four-month periods ahead. Simulation of the one-month forecasting model with 25 years of data indicates an average of 9 percent forecasting error. The results indicate that the accuracy of the models is within the acceptable range. These types of models could be viewed as decision support tools for proper planning and optimum operation of water resources.
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