Determination Of Effective Antecedent
Rainfall For Debris Flow Forecast Based
On Soil Moisture Content Observation In
Jiangjia Gully, China
Author(s)
F. Wei, K. Hu, J. Zhang, Y. Jiang & J. Chen
Abstract
Effective antecedent rainfall (EAR), one of important factors for debris flow
forecast, has different ways of influencing debris flow initiation for different
types of debris flows. For soil-mechanics-typed debris flow, EAR impacts its
initiation by changing the soil moisture content, and for hydromechanics-typed
debris flow, EAR impacts its initiation by increasing the surface runoff. For this
reason, the methods of determining EAR for different types of debris flows are
different. The method for the former type of debris flow is discussed in this
paper. Under the assumptions that soil moisture content due to antecedent
rainfall decays in the same way as EAR, and that the decays for different events
are mutually independent, the variation of EAR can be carried out through
analyzing the variation of soil moisture content. The EAR for debris flow
forecast can then be determined. The decaying of soil moisture content had been
analyzed according to the field observation of rainfall and soil moisture content
in Jiangjia Gully in Yunan Province, where debris flows are caused by soil
mechanical changing triggered by rainfall. Based on the field observation and
data analysis, the formula of calculating EAR for Jiangjia Gully is made out with
least-squares procedure.
Keywords: debris flow, forecast, antecedent rainfall, effective rainfall, soil
moisture content.
Keywords
debris flow, forecast, antecedent rainfall, effective rainfall, soil
moisture content.
Related Book
Other papers in this volume
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