Uncertainty Quantification Of Modeling And
Simulation For Reliability Certification
Author(s)
Zhibo Ma & Ming Yu
Abstract
When a systematic test is difficult to be implemented, M&S (modeling and
simulation) will be an important approach to get information on reliability
certification, and the uncertainty of M&S plays a key role in the certification
framework such as QMU (quantification of margin and uncertainty). The model
in M&S can be classified as an entity model and a physics model which
represents the object of M&S and the physical laws respectively. According to
the mechanism that performances of a system are determined by initial
conditions and the behavior of materials, the essential of M&S can be depicted
by a functional, which reveals how the total uncertainty of M&S is introduced
from three sources such as entity modeling, physics modeling and computing.
M&S is on purpose to precisely forecast those un-happened physical processes
but it must firstly go through V&V (verification and validation) in which the
uncertainty is quantified through comparison and the design variables of these
entity models form a V&V domain, then we think these uncertainties could be
extrapolated to application domain in which the M&S is used as prediction and a
no reference result is available for comparison. A hypothesis is brought forward
that the total uncertainty varies along with the design variables of entity models,
when physics modeling and the computing method remains unchanged, the
relationship between uncertainty and variables of an entity model may be kept
effectively, by which the uncertainty quantification (UQ) in application domain
is reached. A series of detonation models are designed to demonstrate the above
methods, the examples prove that the uncertainty in application domain could be
well quantified unless the entity model in the application domain is far from the
V&V domain.
Keywords: uncertainty quantification, modeling and simulation, verification and
validation, uncertainty prediction, reliability certification.
Keywords
uncertainty quantification, modeling and simulation, verification and
validation, uncertainty prediction, reliability certification.
Related Book
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