A Discrete Time Markov Chain Approach To
Global Risk Analysis In Railway Transportation
Author(s)
P. Cesario, N. Sacco & M. Sciutto
Abstract
Since the earliest days of railways, as traffic was increasing, there has been the
need for developing safety devices and procedures with the aim of avoiding or,
at least, minimising the likelihood of circulation hazards and their consequences.
In this framework, since railways are large and distributed transportation systems,
characterised by a high and heterogeneous technological level and by great infrastructure
complexity, the problem of assessing the risk is very difficult to cope with.
Then, in this paper, the main characteristics of the SIGLO project, defining an analysis
process assess risk is described.
Keywords: railway safety, risk analysis, Discrete Time Markov Chain.
1 Introduction
Since the earliest days of railways, as traffic was increasing, there has been the
need for developing safety devices and procedures with the aim of avoiding or, at
least, minimising the likelihood of circulation hazards and their consequences. In
this framework, in the last years the EuropeanUnion (EU) has begun to address the
railways safety problem by promoting quantitative methodologies for safety level
evaluation, and by introducing ad-hoc norms (see, for instance [1] for a detailed
description of the point of view of the EU on the safety problem). Then, while
in the past the scope of reducing consequences of accidents has been achieved
by designing more robust rolling stocks, the challenge of minimising the accident
frequency has been mainly faced by continuously introducing new technological
devices and \“behavioural norms” which ensure an high safety standard. In this
Keywords
railway safety, risk analysis, Discrete Time Markov Chain.
Related Book
Other papers in this volume
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