Risk Analysis And Acceptability Criteria
Author(s)
M. Guarascio, M. Lombardi, G. Rossi & G. Sciarra
Abstract
The basic concepts and tools for the Quantitative Probabilistic Risk Analysis are
presented.
The rationale of the risk acceptability criteria is discussed in the case of rail
tunnel safety in Italy.
Keywords: Quantitative Probabilistic Risk Analysis, risk acceptability criteria.
1 Introduction
In general, risk analysis is a risk assessment tool which initially has been
developed to investigate the safety of potentially dangerous industrial processes
(e.g. in the chemical industry) or potentially dangerous industrial plants (such as
nuclear power plants). Nowadays Quantitative Probabilistic Risk Analysis is a
powerful common tool in many sectors of engineering design and operating
practice both industrial and civil. The application of risk analysis should help to
establish a proactive safety strategy by investigating potential risks. This safety
strategy was to replace merely experience-based concepts learned from incidents
or accidents, that had already happened.
Generally speaking, risk analysis deals with potential negative consequences
of events that could occur when considering a technical system in a social
environment. The only option in such a situation is to develop a representative
model of the risks associated to the system in question. As there exists an
unlimited number of possibilities of how dangerous effects may develop it is
impossible to take all possible situations into account; therefore the only
investigation is restricted to a limited number of selected representative
scenarios. For that reason it should always be kept in mind that risk analysis is a
model relying on preconditions and assumptions and is not a copy of reality.
Nevertheless risk analysis provides a much better understanding of risk-related
processes than merely experience-based concepts may ever achieve.
Keywords
Quantitative Probabilistic Risk Analysis, risk acceptability criteria.
Related Book
Other papers in this volume
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