The Potential Benefits Of Using Artificial
Intelligence For Monthly Rainfall Forecasting For
The Bowen Basin, Queensland, Australia
Author(s)
J. Abbot & J. Marohasy
Abstract
The Bowen Basin contains the largest coal reserves in Australia. Prolonged
heavy rainfall during the 2010-2011 wet-season severely affected industry
operations with an estimated economic loss of A$5.7 billion (£3.8 billion).
There was no explicit warning of the exceptionally wet conditions in the
seasonal forecast from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, which simply
suggested a 50-55% probability of above median rainfall for the Bowen Basin.
In this study, the value of using neural networks, a form of artificial
intelligence, to forecast monthly rainfall for the town of Nebo in the Bowen
Basin is explored. Neural networks facilitate the input of multiple climate
indices and the exploration of their non-linear relationships. Through genetic
optimisations of input variables related to temperatures, including atmospheric
temperatures and sea surface temperatures expressed through the Inter-decadal
Pacific Oscillation and Niño 3.4, it is possible to develop monthly rainfall
forecasts for Nebo superior to the best seasonal forecasts from the Bureau of
Meteorology. As neural networks employ far superior technology for exploring
the patterns and relationships within historical data including climate indices
they are to be preferred.
Keywords: rainfall, neural network, forecast, Southern Oscillation index
Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, coal, mining.
Keywords
Keywords: rainfall, neural network, forecast, Southern Oscillation index
Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, coal, mining.
Related Book
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