Safety Of Users In Road Evacuation:
Modelling And DSS For Demand
Author(s)
F. Russo & G. Chilà
Abstract
The SICURO research project was developed by the Laboratory for Transport
Systems Analysis (LAST). The project includes demand analysis for
transportation system simulation in emergency conditions. Herein we propose
the specification and calibration of generation and distribution with modal choice
models. Using SP (Stated Preference) and RP (Revealed Preference) surveys.
Software for demand model calibration and estimation is described, with some
being used for the proposed model experimentation.
Keywords: evacuation conditions, calibration, estimation, demand models.
1 Introduction
Several mathematical models have been proposed to simulate travel demand,
based on different assumptions and that can be subdivided in relation to different
elements [1–3]. The behavioural models used mainly belong to the family of
discrete choice models.
Discrete choice models are usually derived under an assumption of utilitymaximizing
behaviour (Random Utility Models, RUM). In relation to the
distribution of random residuals, different model specifications can be derived
and subdivided into two classes: first class, models characterized by probability
expressed in closed form, including the GEV (Generalised Extreme Value)
models [4] and their specifications, such as the Multinomial Logit and the Nested
Logit models; second class, models founded on simulation, including the
Multinomial Probit [5] and Mixed Multinomial Logit models [6].
Generally, these models are estimated by maximizing the likelihood function
(for the first class) or the simulated likelihood functions (for the second class).
Keywords
evacuation conditions, calibration, estimation, demand models.
Related Book
Other papers in this volume
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